Wednesday 5 PM Forecast -- Greater Risk for James Island

The 5 PM NOAA report shows a much greater risk for hurricane force winds in the Charleston area.   The probability was 14% this morning and now has increased to 23%.   The most likely time is Friday night and during the day Saturday, but there is also a substantial risk for Sunday.

The probability of some tropical force winds has greatly increased. It is now 82%. It is more likely to be mild, but a more severe tropical storm has a probability of 25% now.

Here is the link:https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/212431.shtml

Here is the section for the Charleston area:

18 is 1800 hours or 6 PM, and 6 is in the morning.  Tr is my abbreviation for Thursday. The last three probabilities are found by subtraction.  

The track didn't change much since this morning and still shows it going inland to our north.   Still, it is getting a bit close for comfort.   Some reports did suggest a less severe hurricane as it moves south.   Let us hope.

The Governor's mandatory evacuation for James Island is looking more and more wise.   While there is a small chance of heavy wind developing during the day tomorrow, it is very likely safe to leave now or in the morning.