Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Evacuation

All of James Island and all of Charleston County is under a mandatory evacuation order from the Governor.




I have been closely following the NOAA probability chart for the Charleston area.

W   6 W 18 Tr 6 Tr 18 F 6 Sa 6 Su 6
W 18 Tr  6 Tr 18 F   6 Sa  6 Su 6 M 6
greater than 39 MPH x 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 23(52) 13(65) 3(68)
greater than 58 MPH x X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 13(27) 4(31)
greater than 74 MPH x X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
X    = less than 1%
 (  )   cumulative probability


This morning at 8, the probability of hurricane force winds in the Charleston area has risen to 11% (up from 3% just two days ago.)    The most likely time is Saturday.   

The chance that we will have at least a mild Tropical Storm in the Charleston area is getting very high, 68%.

There is a good chance it will start Thursday evening, but also Friday through Saturday.

There are at least some models that have the Hurricane moving South along the coast and even going inland to our south.   That is not a high probability according to NOAA, but the result would be devastating to James Island.

The Town will open our alternative MEOC in Greenwood tonight.

I urge everyone, especially those in low lying areas that have flooded in the past, to heed the Governor's order, and evacuate today, if you have not left already.


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